Thank you for this detailed breakup. The different kinds of debt are (intentionally) convoluted and interrelated, and I hadn't seen the scale of the problem, even though like most casual watchers of money, I had noticed the nature of it.
Obviously between the layers of complexity and the finger on the scale, it's hard to predict, but what magnitude of a debt default do you think would trigger the next 'crisis'? Would companies like Evergrande qualify?
Also, at a personal level, if you have a line of credit available at fixed rates, doesn't it make sense to take it on, since hyperinflation would allow you to pay it back less 'purchasing power' than you borrowed?
Deso thanks for your work. Been following for a while now. Just subscribed to your substack. Your writing is impeccable but there is one tiny thing that can be done better and I think would make people take you even more seriously. (please forgive me for maybe coming off as blunt - I am Dutch though ;)). One thing that disturbs me in your writing, and it has nothing to do with the content is this: you mix up the words then and than. Example: "....too big, rather then why". Should be.... rather than.
Yikes, this was a handful. The issue i have with this particular entry is that gold and silverbears have been calling for a crash for AT LEAST a decade. And it hasnt happened. In fact stocks and bitcoin vastly outperformed gold and silver. So for whatever its worth, the bubble could last another couple years. Why not ? Sure its there, but when will it pop. Why buy Silver or Gold now, when clearly it would have been a mediocre choice AT ANY POINT in the last 10 years. Why should today or tomorrow or the day after be any different than the last 3500 days.
Thank you for this detailed breakup. The different kinds of debt are (intentionally) convoluted and interrelated, and I hadn't seen the scale of the problem, even though like most casual watchers of money, I had noticed the nature of it.
Obviously between the layers of complexity and the finger on the scale, it's hard to predict, but what magnitude of a debt default do you think would trigger the next 'crisis'? Would companies like Evergrande qualify?
Also, at a personal level, if you have a line of credit available at fixed rates, doesn't it make sense to take it on, since hyperinflation would allow you to pay it back less 'purchasing power' than you borrowed?
>How are you going to pay down a mortgage with the house itself after it's risen in value?
I don't follow this.
If the house gains value, you'll simply have more equity. The loan won't change.
Deso thanks for your work. Been following for a while now. Just subscribed to your substack. Your writing is impeccable but there is one tiny thing that can be done better and I think would make people take you even more seriously. (please forgive me for maybe coming off as blunt - I am Dutch though ;)). One thing that disturbs me in your writing, and it has nothing to do with the content is this: you mix up the words then and than. Example: "....too big, rather then why". Should be.... rather than.
Hope it helps. Have a nice day.
Yikes, this was a handful. The issue i have with this particular entry is that gold and silverbears have been calling for a crash for AT LEAST a decade. And it hasnt happened. In fact stocks and bitcoin vastly outperformed gold and silver. So for whatever its worth, the bubble could last another couple years. Why not ? Sure its there, but when will it pop. Why buy Silver or Gold now, when clearly it would have been a mediocre choice AT ANY POINT in the last 10 years. Why should today or tomorrow or the day after be any different than the last 3500 days.